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Article: The impact of fossil stratigraphic ranges on tip‐calibration, and the accuracy and precision of divergence time estimates

Palaeontology - Vol. 63 Part 1 - Cover Image
Publication: Palaeontology
Volume: 63
Part: 1
Publication Date: January 2020
Page(s): 67 83
Author(s): Hans P. Püschel, Joseph E. O'Reilly, Davide Pisani, and Philip C. J. Donoghue
Addition Information

How to Cite

PüSCHEL, H.P., O'REILLY, J.E., PISANI, D., DONOGHUE, P.C.J. 2020. . Palaeontology, 63, 1, 67-83. DOI: /doi/10.1111/pala.12443

Author Information

  • Hans P. Püschel - School of Earth Sciences University of Bristol Life Sciences Building, Tyndall Avenue Bristol BS8 1TQ UK
  • Hans P. Püschel - School of Geosciences Grant Institute University of Edinburgh The King's Buildings, James Hutton Road Edinburgh EH9 3FE Scotland UK
  • Joseph E. O'Reilly - School of Earth Sciences University of Bristol Life Sciences Building, Tyndall Avenue Bristol BS8 1TQ UK
  • Joseph E. O'Reilly - MRC Human Genetics Unit MRC Institute of Genetics & Molecular Medicine University of Edinburgh Western General Hospital, Crewe Road, Edinburgh EH4 2XU Scotland UK
  • Davide Pisani - School of Earth Sciences University of Bristol Life Sciences Building, Tyndall Avenue Bristol BS8 1TQ UK
  • Davide Pisani - School of Biological Sciences University of Bristol Life Sciences Building, Tyndall Avenue Bristol BS8 1TQ UK
  • Philip C. J. Donoghue - School of Earth Sciences University of Bristol Life Sciences Building, Tyndall Avenue Bristol BS8 1TQ UK

Publication History

  • Issue published online: 24 December 2019
  • Manuscript Accepted: 09 May 2019
  • Manuscript Received: 12 December 2018

Funded By

Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Numbers: NE/N002067/1, NE/P013678/1
Becas Chile scholarship. Grant Number: 73180060
BBSRC. Grant Number: BB/N000919/1

Online Version Hosted By

Wiley Online Library
Get Article: Wiley Online Library [Pay-to-View Access] |

Abstract

The molecular clock provides the only viable means of establishing realistic evolutionary timescales but it remains unclear how best to calibrate divergence time analyses. Calibrations can be applied to the tips and/or to the nodes of a phylogeny. Tip‐calibration is an attractive approach since it allows fossil species to be included alongside extant relatives in molecular clock analyses. However, most fossil species are known from multiple stratigraphical horizons and it remains unclear how such age ranges should be interpreted to codify tip‐calibrations. We use simulations and empirical data to explore the impact on precision and accuracy of different approaches to informing tip‐calibrations. In particular, we focus on the effect of using tip‐calibrations defined using the oldest vs youngest stratigraphic occurrences, the full stratigraphical range, as well as confidence intervals on these data points. The results of our simulations show that using different calibration approaches leads to different divergence‐time estimates and demonstrate that concentrating tip‐calibrations near the root of the dated phylogeny improves both precision and accuracy of estimated divergence times. Finally, our results indicate that the highest levels of accuracy and precision are achieved when fossil tips are calibrated based on the fossil occurrence from which the morphological data were derived. These trends were corroborated by analysis of an empirical dataset for Ursidae. Overall, we conclude that tip‐dating analyses should, in particular, employ tip calibrations close to the root of the tree and they should be calibrated based on the age of the fossil used to inform the morphological data used in Total Evidence Dating.

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